El Niño puts more than 162 million children at risk across Eastern and Southern Africa

More than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa are living in areas exposed to the effects of a strengthening El Niño that is expected to intensify in the coming months. It is threatening to deepen food insecurity, disrupt schooling and expose children to disease, flooding and extreme heat, UNICEF warned.

The figure represents more than two-thirds of all children in the region, according to UNICEF, which is urging governments, donors and humanitarian agencies to act before the worst effects of the climate event are felt. The warning comes as the World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is already firmly established and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event toward the end of 2026. WMO forecasts give a nearly 100% likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.

Unlike sudden disasters, the broad effects of El Niño can be anticipated through climate forecasts, allowing food, medicines, water-treatment supplies and other emergency assistance to be positioned before communities are hit.

“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa.

“Across the region, children are facing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and disrupted learning,” she said. “Further, major climate shocks will likely push children and the systems they rely on to breaking point.”

UNICEF has identified 13 countries requiring urgent preparedness and early action: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The effects are not expected to be uniform. In parts of East Africa, heavier-than-normal rainfall can increase the threat of flooding, while other areas face drought and extreme heat. WMO has warned that the strong El Niño will produce major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, with the precise effects varying by region.

Somalia is among the countries facing particularly severe risks. UNICEF’s scenario mapping indicates that flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario. In Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children are expected to be affected, particularly in communities already experiencing severe food insecurity and other vulnerabilities.

South Sudan faces a combination of drought, extreme heat and localised flooding that could worsen food insecurity and malnutrition while increasing the risk of disease outbreaks and displacement. The risks come on top of existing humanitarian pressures.

The World Health Organization and WMO have separately warned that El Niño can increase the risk of infectious diseases, including malaria and other mosquito-borne illnesses, while drought and flooding can contribute to malnutrition and cholera. The agency also wants governments to strengthen social-protection systems so that early warnings can trigger cash assistance and other support before families are forced into more damaging coping strategies.

UNICEF says it urgently requires $173 million within its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children appeal to reach 24.6 million children and their families across priority countries with anticipatory and life-saving assistance. The agency says less than 1% of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, despite evidence that acting early can reduce humanitarian needs and protect development gains. It is estimated that every $1 invested in disaster-risk reduction can save up to $15 in future recovery costs.

 “This El Niño is a test. We have the science. We have advance warning. And we still have time to act,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said recently.

UNICEF, said that knowledge is translated into action.

“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them,” Kadilli said. “The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price.”